Thursday, February 26, 2009

RBS taps UK Treasury for £25.5bn

Problems continue in major UK bank RBS...the entire story can be read here

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ae796b5c-03d7-11de-845b-000077b07658.html

One wonders if such a day will arrive in the Indian banking scenario too?

Recession hits America

On a lighter note...

“Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves” is now ‘Ali Baba and the Thirty Thieves… 10 were laid off!

“Batman and Robin” is now “Batman and Pedro”. Batman fired Robin and hired Pedro because Pedro was willing to work twice the hours at the same rate!

Women are finally marrying for love! And not money!

Q: With the current market turmoil, what's the easiest way to make a small fortune?
A: Start off with a large one.

Q: What's the difference between an American and a Zimbabwean?
A: In a few weeks, nothing.

The credit crunch is getting bad isn't it? I mean, I let my brother borrow $10 a couple of weeks back, it turns out I'm now America 's third biggest lender.

Monday, February 23, 2009

Banking Woes continue - stay short!

Problems with global banking giants continue. Citi shares tumbled to below USD2 on Friday. Citigroup is pressing the US government to agree on a new capital injection that would increase the authorities’ stake in the troubled bank to about 40 per cent but stop short of an outright nationalisation. The entire story can be read here
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/806418a0-0140-11de-8f6e-000077b07658.html

The other side of the Atlantic RBS is cutting its balance sheet by 25%. The entire story can be read here
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/55253388-0125-11de-8f6e-000077b07658.html

How do we as traders profit from this?
Keep an eye on the Bank Nifty in India. It has been trending for the last many months and is still giving great short term moves..long and short. For the unprofessional trader, obviously it is safer to remain short.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Power of Compounding

Lets get back to the basics...high school maths...simple interest vs compound interest. 10 lacs invested now and compounded at 30% per annum will get multiplied to 250 crores in 30 years. However if one withdraws the 30% every year i.e. withdraws 3 lacs every year the principal at the end of 30 years will remain 10 lacs.

What do we take away from this?
1) Compounding is an amazing thing - if you want to be worth 250 crores in 30 years start now with 10 lacs
2) How does one get 30% per annum...technical analysis and trend following....30% a year is very easy using this.

Monday, February 9, 2009

Nifty breaks out of trading range

The Nifty broke out of the trading range at 14:05 today...2875 had proved to be resistance for the last 4 weeks...Short term trend is up now...

Saturday, February 7, 2009

Two sides, two opinions - we'll make profits both ways

Stock market Bulls are thumping their chests, convinced we’ve reached a turning point for the economy.

With interest rates low, … bailouts, stimulus packages , recovery is almost here. And since the market always moves up ahead the economy, the time to buy is now.

But the Bears are equally convinced that we haven’t seen the worst — for the economy or the market — just quite yet.
They point to soaring job losses, corporate profits falling like a rock and sour consumer confidence as proof that now is not the time to buy.

Frankly, I don’t know which side is right, and I don’t care.

The diversity of opinions — coupled with all the uncertainty about the economy — virtually guarantees continued volatility in the stock market.

And I will trade the volatility on both sides of the market to make myself — and members of my services — a whole lot richer.

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Nifty in narrow range

The Nifty has been trading in a very narrow range of 2662 to 2875 since 12 January 2009. Most day traders would be happy to break even for this period. The Nifty is bound to breakout or breakdown from this range. It is imminent.

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

What is Recession??? ?

The story is about a man who once upon a time was selling hot dogs by the roadside. He was illiterate, so he never read newspapers. He was hard of hearing, so he never listened to the radio. His eyes were weak, so he never watched television. But enthusiastically, he sold lots of hot dogs. He was smart enough to offer some attractive schemes to increase his sales. His sales and profit went up. He ordered more & more raw materials and buns and use to sell more. He recruited few more supporting staff to serve more customers. He started offering home deliveries. Eventually he got himself a bigger and better store. As his business was growing, the son, who had recently graduated from college, joined his father.

Then something strange happened.

The son asked, "dad, aren't you aware of the great recession that is coming our way?" the father replied, "no, but tell me about it." the son said, "the international situation is terrible. The domestic situation is even worse. We should be prepared for the coming bad times" the man thought that since his son had been to college, read the papers, listened to the radio and watched TV, he ought to know and his advice should not be taken lightly. So the next day onwards, the father cut down the his raw material order and buns, took down the colorful sign board, removed all the special schemes he was offering to the customers and was no longer as enthusiastic. He reduced his staff strength by giving layoffs. Very soon, fewer and fewer people bothered to stop at his hot dog stand. And his sales started coming down rapidly, same happened to his profit. The father said to his son, "Son, you were right. We are in the middle of a recession and crisis. I am glad you warned me ahead of time".

" What can we take away from this story??

How many times we confuse intelligence with good judgment?
Choose your advisers carefully but use your own judgment

People are so disullusioned with the stock market they feel it is impossible to make money from the market. The same people will reeenter just before the peak of the next bull market and lose their shirts again.

Money is there to be made...right here, right now! Trade the Nifty professionally and get over your recession woes!