The PE of the S&P500 is 129...an all time high.
Pls click here to see an interesting chart of PE for the last 80 years...it normally remains upto 25...a very good indicator of the kind of crash that lies ahead in the US markets....
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090821.htm?T
Monday, August 24, 2009
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Nifty bearish
Nifty has become bearish on 18 August...We have been rangebound between 3900 and 4700...a move outside these points will decide the intermediate direction of the market....we are at a critical juncture now....but as of now the trend appears bearish...
Colonial bank fails - 6th largest failure in history
US banks seems to still be having trouble. Colonial bank failed on August 14th - the 6th largest bank failure in hsitory.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/14/news/companies/colonial_bancgroup/?postversion=2009081500
My sense is we are just at the tip of the iceberg as far as US is concerned. US is in a very bad hsape and there will be many more bank failures in the coming months. The charts are extremely bearish and the current rally seems to have got the fundamentalists bullish again. They might cry very loudly...again!
In Asia, China seems to have an intermediate top in place. The next few weeks could see a sharp correction. China govt has pumped in so much credit in the system that a crash is imminent.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/14/news/companies/colonial_bancgroup/?postversion=2009081500
My sense is we are just at the tip of the iceberg as far as US is concerned. US is in a very bad hsape and there will be many more bank failures in the coming months. The charts are extremely bearish and the current rally seems to have got the fundamentalists bullish again. They might cry very loudly...again!
In Asia, China seems to have an intermediate top in place. The next few weeks could see a sharp correction. China govt has pumped in so much credit in the system that a crash is imminent.
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Nifty to continue uptrend if goes above 4590
Thursday and Friday's decline in the Nifty appears to be a pullback. The trend is currently UP. If the Nifty crosses 4590 on the upside the uptrend will be confirmed and traders can inititate fresh longs. A break over 4730 which the Nifty has tested thrice and failed in the past will result in a massive short covering and taking the Nifty to new highs.
This is the ideal scenario on the upside.
If the Nifty moves sideways and continues to go down, failing to cross 4590, we might see some downwards momentum.
Overall, the trend in Nifty is UP over the medium and longer horizons. The DOW is bearish over the longer horizon. While a major correction in the DOW or Asian markets will always result in the Nifty correcting short term, at some point the Nifty is going to decouple from the DOW and other global markets and continue its upward trajectory.
This is the ideal scenario on the upside.
If the Nifty moves sideways and continues to go down, failing to cross 4590, we might see some downwards momentum.
Overall, the trend in Nifty is UP over the medium and longer horizons. The DOW is bearish over the longer horizon. While a major correction in the DOW or Asian markets will always result in the Nifty correcting short term, at some point the Nifty is going to decouple from the DOW and other global markets and continue its upward trajectory.
50% US mortgages underwater by 2011
The next wave of declines in the housing market in the US seems ready to unveil.
About half of US mortgages will have negative equity (price of the house less than the amount owed to the bank) by 2011. The entire article can be read here
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5745JP20090805
The bear market in the USA might be here to stay!
About half of US mortgages will have negative equity (price of the house less than the amount owed to the bank) by 2011. The entire article can be read here
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5745JP20090805
The bear market in the USA might be here to stay!
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