Cardamom bearish, support at current levels

Cardamom is in a downtrend. But we have support at current levels of 1050. We might see a small bounce from these levels. But the larger trend is downwards.

Nifty Update

From a longer term perspective the trend is downwards. As per Dow Theory we got a sell signal at 5700. When do we get a buy, when we start seeing higher tops and higher bottoms which I feel will take some time to happen.

From a short term perspective while we are in this 5175-5589 zone we could be rangebound but if we breakdown below 5175 it is very weak for the market. 4800 is the next support which we hit in May 2010.

We have resistance at 5550-5600 zone. Time to be cautious, I would get bullish on the market if 5589 is taken out comfortably on a closing basis.

FIIs continue to sell.

Budget will provide a trigger, so let us wait and see how the market reacts rather than initiating any trades now.

Nifty Futures Update

• Nifty is in a short term uptrend now
• Nifty seems to have taken support around the 50 week EMA
• 50% retracement of fall from 6350 in Nov 2010 to 5180 in feb 2011 is 5770, 38.2% is 5632.
• Fallen a large amount so retracement s happening
• 5550 is an important number to be taken out
• Whether this uptrend is sustainable we will have to evaluate later

Nikkei 225 in an uptrend

The Nikkei is in an uptrend. a Cross above 11428 will urther confirm this uptrend. Watch out for action on the Japanese Index

There is always a bull market somewhere

There is always a bull market on somewhere. The chart above shows the upward trend in Castor Seed traded on the NCDEX. That is the main adantage in trading a variety of asset classes - some assets are always bullish. Diversification is the only free lunch on the Street!

Nifty update - bears are back!

• As mentioned a couple of weeks ago Nifty has broken down below the 5700-6200 range after testing 5700 a few times in the past. Also in doing so it has created a new lower bottom and thus has given a Sell signal as per Dow Theory.
• FIIs continue to sell.
• 5300-5450 is the zone it broke away from before the huge rally to 6300 so this zone should provide support
• Rather than watching for specific zones one should keep an eye on the FII figures. As long as they continue to sell one cannot expect a sustainable bounce back in the nifty
• We are near the 200 DMA which is a zone where there is massive fight between bulls and the bears to decide the next direction. So it is choppy and expected to be choppy for the next few weeks
• It best for investors to be on the sidelines till we get some direction for the market. Trend would change if we go above 5750 and thus create a higher top
• Traders should wait for the the next rally to short the market rather than shorting now

Crude Oil Update

Crude Oil is near the Fibonacci 50% retracement from the mid 2008 high of 6370 to the December 2008 low of 1940. If we remain comfortable above this 4100-4200 zone then the next stop is the 61.8% level of 4670.