Tuesday, March 31, 2009

News that could make Nifty retest 2200

US threatens bankruptcy for GM, Chrysler. The entire article can be read here.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123845591244871499.html#mod=rss_whats_news_us_business

The Nifty is currently in a short term downtrend. If it breaks 2900 it could go much lower.

Friday, March 27, 2009

buy the dip, sell the rip

3 words that have made most people poor: buy-and-hold
6 words that can make you rich: buy the dip, sell the rip

Even Warren Buffet has changed his style - he dumped Procter & Gamble in December.
Stop investing, start trading. You will be rich soon!

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

US markets rally

the S&P500 rose 7 percent, reacting to a new bank rescue plan.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7e0a2e32-17a7-11de-8c9d-0000779fd2ac.html

Back home, the Nifty has already rallied significantly in the last 10 days. There is significant resistance at the 3000 level. It will be interesting to see if it holds.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Greedy bankers to face 90% tax

There is a proposal to impose 90% taxes on bankers who earn huge bonuses.
The article can be read here
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4ff2f77e-1584-11de-b9a9-0000779fd2ac.html

There is tremendous amount of greed in Wall street. Ultimately everything in life can be be viewed as a game of fear and greed.

Back home, the Nifty has been rangebound for the last few days. We should see some direction soon again.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Trend Following

A trend following setup CANNOT answer the following questions:

1) Why the market is going up or down
2) How long it will continue going up or down
3) How much it will go up or down

What a trend following setup CAN do:
Make money for you in a systematic way based on probabilities and momentum and help eliminate emotions like fear and greed.

It is boring but makes money at the end of the day. Amen!

At the time of this post I am long on the Nifty. The positions seems to be working against me and will probably end in a loss - which happens in 50% of the cases. But the setup still makes money when traded with discipline.

Friday, March 6, 2009

The toughest part of trading

The toughest part of trading is controlling one's emotions and being disciplined. If one is constantly wondering whether to buy or once in a trade whether to sell then it is not sytematic trading. It is random. It is like entering a casino and playing one round of black jack and then going to the next slot machine and trying one's luck there. Blowing up one's precious capital is guaranteed- its a matter of when.

How does one conquer one's emotions - trading a systematic plan. Have clear rules which are not written but carved in stone. The rules should be like this

Go Long: Condition 1
Stop Loss: Condition 2
Exit: Condition 3

Go Short: Condition 4
Stop Loss: Condition 5
Exit: Condition 6

Position Sizing/Money management: Condition 7

Such a system needs to be back tested, forward tested and traded live to build confidence.

Once one develops such a system the comfort level is immense. Trading will be more stress free than relaxing on the beach.

Happy trading!!

Monday, March 2, 2009

Nifty extremely bearish

The Nifty is extremely bearish now...all indicators are pointing downwards and the current momentum is down...Initiate or stay short!