Yesterday I went to a party. As ususal the stock market became the topic of discussion. Everyone seems to be an expert on the market despite having drawdowns of 70-80%. TV commentators seem to have tough competition! One gentleman told me he got saved because HLL and ITC comprise 30% of his portfolio. I asked him what about the other 70%. He admitted rather sheepishly that he has got slaughtered in that. This man has been investing for the last 50 years in the market. But people have a short memory. He claims he is a long term investor and believes in buy-and-hold. I asked him about the shares which he had bought before the 2000/01 tech crash. He admitted that those couldn't rise to the 2000/01 levels even during the height of this bull market (2007 December). My point is:
1) Every bull market has its separate heroes..when they crash they don't recover even during the next bull market
2) Buy-and-hold type of investment has been popularised by the likes of Warren Buffet...everybody talks of knowing someone who bought Infosys and held onto it....but talk to others who didn't buy Infosys and are still holding onto their investments....in most cases its a case of buy-and-hope
3) Momentum trading can give very good returns if done with discipline...compounding that can turn a small amount of money into a massive fortune...
But people will still buy-and-hope...they will go through fear and greed...that is why 95% of people lose money in the stock market....the 5% who make money make it because of this...
Saturday, December 6, 2008
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