Nifty short term trend is down

Short term trend in Nifty is down. We have broken 5950 which was an important support zone for the last couple of months. We are near 50 day MA so it is expected to be volatile here. There is a massive fight going on between bulls and bears. Short term traders can short at 5950 with 6050 as SL and target of 5500. The Dollar Index may be in for an upmove which could result in equities in India heading downwards.

5950 key support

For the short term 5950 is a key support zone for Nifty Futures. A move below this could spell further weakness for the market.

The longer term bull run is still intact as long as we don't break below 5350.

The region between 5350 and 5950 is fairly large and we might end up somewhere in between fairly quick if the bears take charge. The next few days are going to be very interesting!

Copper attempting a major breakout

The above chart shows HG Copper continuous on the Comex. It is attempting to breakout above serious overhead resistance. 4.05 which has contained its price several times in the last 5 years. A breakout above these levels should some serious movement in the price of Copper.

Crude Oil - breaking out of range?

Crude oil has closed above stiff resistance around 3875 levels on MCX. A definitive close above 3875 for the next few days is very bullish for crude which has been rangebound for the last 15-18 months. Keep an eye on these levels closely.

QE2 & Commodities bubble

A good article on how QE2 might cause a bubble in commodities

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6A42S820101105

Commodities Update - MCX, NCDEX

Media Appearance for Monday 8 November:

830am - NDTV Profit
1230pm - Bloomberg UTV

Please tune in if you are around.

There has been a lot of talk around gold, silver recently so this would be a good time to give an update on Commodities.

All metals including Gold, Silver, Copper, Lead, Aluminium, Nickel are bullish and in uptrends. How long the party lasts remains to be seen but as of now it is safe to remain long in Metals.

In agri space Mentha Oil, Crude palm Oil, Chilli and Rapeseed are in uptrends.

QE2 should have a positive impact on Equity and Commodity markets globally so commodities is an interesting space to be invested in.

Dollar Index on a clear downtrend

The Dollar Index is in a clear downtrend.

The 50 day EMA is below the 200 day EMA. It has been making a pattern of lower tops and lower bottoms on the daily charts.

If we see the weekly charts (as shown above) the Dollar Index has broken through a major trendline support.

This has major bearish implications for the Dollar Index in the coming weeks/months.

Nifty bullish

Nifty has been rangebound between 5950 and 6180 on the upside for the last few weeks. It has crossed 6180 (Nifty Futures) today intraday. This is bullish. Its a very high probability that we should see lifetime high soon. The street is waiting for the Fed announcement on QE2. Hopefully it should be positive and the bull run should continue. The Euphoria around Coal India, Diwali and also sustained FII buying are all positive and unless there is some adverse news from the Fed we should see Nifty at a lifetime high soon.