Nifty is Bullish

•The Nifty has come out the range of 5700 to 6100
•A number of other patterns and studies in various timeframes are showing a bullish upmove for the nifty
•Western, European and Asian Indices all continue to be in uptrends so the global scenario is conducive for an upmove
•FIIs have been buying for the last few days so that is a positive sign
It is highly probable that the early months of 2011 should prove extremely strong for the market. Have a great yaer ahead!

Nifty 6080 key level for short term trend

6080-6100 is a key zone for short term traders in Nifty. A move above this should see significant short covering and also fresh longs being initiated. Watch this zone to see if the current uptrend in the Nifty is to sustain.

Nifty Update

• Nifty has come out of the narrow range from 5880 to 5960..so the short term direction is UP
• We seem to be coming out of the larger range of 5700 to 6100…
• If you analyse the market from a Dow theory point of view we are still in a bull market…we have made a pattern of higher tops and higher bottoms. The last significant bottom was 5350 and now in this November crash a new higher bottom of 5700 has been made.
• Western, European and Asian Indices all continue to be in uptrends so the global scenario is conducive for an upmove
• If you put all these things together it is likely that the correction we saw in November was a pullback and the uptrend should resume.
• There is a strong probability that we cross lifetime highs of 6350 and once we cross that a 10% upmove from there is likely

Nifty sideways and rangebound

Overall the Nifty could be rangebound between 5700 to 6200…this is a sideways kind of market. It'svery difficult to say which way the market will move till we come out of this range. 5727 was the low we reached on 26 november so if that is taken out further bearish for the short term.

FIIs are selling which of course needs to be watched very closely.

5400-5500 should prove to be a strong support which is also the region of the 200 day MA

Keep an eye on Copper

Gold and Silver are in well established uptrends. For those who missed the trend keep an eye on Copper. As shown in the chart above Copper has overcome a key resistance which has contained prices many times in the past 5-6 years. If this breakout were to hold Copper could be the next trending commodity.

Nifty short term trend is down

Short term trend in Nifty is down. We have broken 5950 which was an important support zone for the last couple of months. We are near 50 day MA so it is expected to be volatile here. There is a massive fight going on between bulls and bears. Short term traders can short at 5950 with 6050 as SL and target of 5500. The Dollar Index may be in for an upmove which could result in equities in India heading downwards.

5950 key support

For the short term 5950 is a key support zone for Nifty Futures. A move below this could spell further weakness for the market.

The longer term bull run is still intact as long as we don't break below 5350.

The region between 5350 and 5950 is fairly large and we might end up somewhere in between fairly quick if the bears take charge. The next few days are going to be very interesting!

Copper attempting a major breakout

The above chart shows HG Copper continuous on the Comex. It is attempting to breakout above serious overhead resistance. 4.05 which has contained its price several times in the last 5 years. A breakout above these levels should some serious movement in the price of Copper.

Crude Oil - breaking out of range?

Crude oil has closed above stiff resistance around 3875 levels on MCX. A definitive close above 3875 for the next few days is very bullish for crude which has been rangebound for the last 15-18 months. Keep an eye on these levels closely.

Commodities Update - MCX, NCDEX

Media Appearance for Monday 8 November:

830am - NDTV Profit
1230pm - Bloomberg UTV

Please tune in if you are around.

There has been a lot of talk around gold, silver recently so this would be a good time to give an update on Commodities.

All metals including Gold, Silver, Copper, Lead, Aluminium, Nickel are bullish and in uptrends. How long the party lasts remains to be seen but as of now it is safe to remain long in Metals.

In agri space Mentha Oil, Crude palm Oil, Chilli and Rapeseed are in uptrends.

QE2 should have a positive impact on Equity and Commodity markets globally so commodities is an interesting space to be invested in.

Dollar Index on a clear downtrend

The Dollar Index is in a clear downtrend.

The 50 day EMA is below the 200 day EMA. It has been making a pattern of lower tops and lower bottoms on the daily charts.

If we see the weekly charts (as shown above) the Dollar Index has broken through a major trendline support.

This has major bearish implications for the Dollar Index in the coming weeks/months.

Nifty bullish

Nifty has been rangebound between 5950 and 6180 on the upside for the last few weeks. It has crossed 6180 (Nifty Futures) today intraday. This is bullish. Its a very high probability that we should see lifetime high soon. The street is waiting for the Fed announcement on QE2. Hopefully it should be positive and the bull run should continue. The Euphoria around Coal India, Diwali and also sustained FII buying are all positive and unless there is some adverse news from the Fed we should see Nifty at a lifetime high soon.

Nifty Futures - 5950 key support

5950-5970 is a very key support zone for Nifty Futures. Going below that would imply short term weakness for the market. It would set off a pattern of lower tops and lower bottoms for the short term. Keep a close watch on this zone.

Also yesterday FIIs sold approx 950cr in the cash market. Keep watching FII activity closely.

Nifty short term trend is down

Short term trend on the Nifty is down. We have broken the trendline that started from 5352 on 31 Aug 2010 to a high of 6286 on 14 October. 5950-60 on Nifty spot is an important support. Below that we can see a 50% correction of the upmove from 5350 to 6286 which is roughly around 5750

• Globally All western indices are bullish on an uptrend. SP500 has resistance at 1220 and support at 1040. Dow Jones has resistance at 11235 and support at 9950
Russia, Brazil, FTSE, CAC, DAX, Taiwan, Shanghai is bullish

• Dollar index seems to have taken support at 76, its got support below that at 74, needs to cross 83 to confirm it is in an uptrend. Currently it is bearish.

• We continue to remain bullish on the Nifty. The longer term bull market is intact. We are still in a pattern of higher tops and higher bottoms in the long term. If we go below 5350 that would get violated.

Nifty Update

Overall trend is UP on the Nifty. Charts are bullish

Short term the range is between 5950 and 6100. A move outside this range will decide the next direction of the market for the short term.

FIIs continue to pump in money.

S&P500 Update

The S&P 500 has broken out above 1130 which is a key resistance and has stopped the progress of the S&P500 twice in the past. Short covering by the bears will move the index higher but if this rally has any lasting strength the bulls need to step in with some buying.

The next few days/weeks would be interesting to see how the situation pans out with the S&P500.

Nifty 5900 and beyond

Charts are extremely bullish, it’s a quiet bull market with low volatility. VIX is currently around 18 levels. We continue to remain bullish on the Nifty. Nifty is now rewarding investors for their patience after a long rangebound period. There is no resistance till 6350. FIIs continue to pump in money. Retail has started entering and will do so increasingly as the rally progresses.

Looking forward to Nifty 6350 and higher.

Stay long or be wrong!

Its a bull market...current momentum, breadth is very strong. Retail hasn't participated yet so they will throw in the towel and join now. Very high probability of huge moves in the Nifty now. Enjoy the ride!

Nifty Update

The Nifty has closed above 5400 today. Its an important breakout from the 4785 to 5400 range and confirms the bull move as Nifty is continuing to make a pattern of higher tops and higher bottoms. If 5400 holds we should see fresh highs in the Nifty in the coming days, weeks.

SP500 breaks 1040 - downtrend still alive

The SP500 broke the 1040 resistance yesterday. Whether this is a deadcat bounce or the bears waiting to catch breath, time will tell. However for the current bearish trend of lower tops and lower bottoms to change we need to break above 1130. Till then the trend is clearly bearish - with both a death cross (50 day moving average crossing below 200 day moving average) and a pattern of lower tops and lower bottoms in place.